........What Next For Syria
The French capital Paris yesterday witnessed a brief meeting for the "Friends of Syria" group. The most recognisable participants were the United States's foreign minister Hillary Clinton, her Turkish fellow Ahmed Davutoglu, the foreign ministers of Germany, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the hosting country's foreign minister Alain Juppé.
This meeting is the third of the Friends of Syria group. The main point discussed was how to push for the success of Kofi Annan's plan, or what procedures should be decided on in case the plan fails.
L ittle information emerged from this closed meeting and the decisions taken by the attending countries, but the French foreign minister's comments in the final session may reveal some of the hidden information, particularly when he was quoted saying "the failure of Annan's plan will open the way to a civil war or a regional conflict."
Annan's plan seems to have very little chance of success, as several fronts don't want it to succeed. Whether they are Syrian fronts like the regime and the opposition, or foreign ones like the United States, Britain and France - Annan's plan's success means the current regime will retain its place while negotiations will only relate to the offered democratic reforms.
The UN secretary general Ban Ki-Moon questioned yeserday whether the ceasefire is being observed in Syria, expecting the Security Council to adopt a plan soon of deploying 300 civil and military observers there. He stated Syria had offered to guarantee air transportation for the international observers and not hinder their movements .
Raising questions about the chances of success of Annan's plan can be understood by two main prospects. First: it is for putting pressure on the Syrian government to force it to commit to the ceasefire, paving that way for the implementation of the next six points of the plan - particularly setting to the negotiation table.
Second: these questions are intended to quickly declare the death of Annan's plan to jump swiftly to the blockade option, or may be the option of arming the opposition, or even external military intervention.
When Juppé warns of civil war as a normal sign of the plan's failure, this means that the arming operations adopted by Saudi Arabia and Qatar will begin swiftly. Warning about a regional conflict is a clear allusion to an external military intervention, whether by NATO or by some Arab countries.
When the Turkish foreign minister was asked by the writer of this essay about the difference between "Friends of Libya" and "Friends of Syria", he said that the friends of Libya group was formed after a military intervention, while the group of Syria was formed before. It seems like the military intervention is coming closer and the search for a justification is going on. This justification may be the failure of Annan's plan or the controversy about the international observers' mission.
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