(CNN) -- The renewed bloodshed and defiant protests
in Egypt prompts a provocative question: Could Egypt really collapse?
Just two years into a
revolution that ignited during the Arab Spring, Egypt's defense minister
warned this week the raging conflict "may lead to the collapse of the
state and threaten the future of our coming generations."
On Wednesday, analysts
described that statement as overreaching, but none dismissed the
severity of the country's problems.
"His comments were a bit
over the top," said Joshua Stacher, a fellow at the Woodrow Wilson
International Center of Scholars.
Port Said rages against Morsy
Young people rebelling in Egypt
Police, protesters clash in Cairo
Rumbles in the ranks in Egypt
"It depends on what your
definition of what 'collapse' is," added Steven A. Cook, senior fellow
for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. "The
economy is certainly in terrible shape."
James Coyle, director of
global education at Chapman University in California, said the comment
by Defense Minister Gen. Abdul Fattah al-Sisi was "a bit of an
overreaction."
"But five days of riots
and tens of deaths and thousands of demonstrators still in Tahrir Square
two years after the fall of (Hosni) Mubarak, I can understand why he
would say it."
Analysts agreed that the
remarks should serve as an alarm.
"It was a warning to
everybody -- the opposition, the Brotherhood -- that they've got to get
their act together," said CNN correspondent Ben Wedeman in Cairo. He was
referring to the Muslim Brotherhood, the Islamist party to which
President Mohamed Morsy belongs.
The military -- the
powerful bulwark for Egyptian secularism that temporarily governed the
country after the revolution ousted longtime ruler Mubarak -- is worried
about civil war.
"This is a telegraphed
message to everybody that this is getting out of control," Wedeman said.
U.S. Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton also addressed the defense minister's warning of a
collapse.
"I hope not," she told
CNN Tuesday. "That would lead to incredible chaos and violence on a
scale that would be devastating for Egypt and the region."
Morsy's government needs
to understand that the revolution's aspirations "have to be taken
seriously" and that "the rule of law applied to everyone," she said.
"It's very difficult
going from a closed regime -- essentially one-man rule -- to a democracy
that is trying to be born and learn to walk," Clinton explained. "I
think the messages and the actions coming from the leadership have to be
changed in order to give people confidence that they are on the right
path to the kind of future they seek."
Exacerbating the
political crisis is Egypt's woeful economy, where the lifeblood of
tourism is all but dead and the currency is devalued, analysts said.
Recent demonstrations in
Port Said and nearby cities along the Suez Canal are symbolic because
that region was among the first where the Mubarak regime lost control
during the 2011 unrest leading to revolution, analysts said. The region
has long felt distant from Cairo.
Demonstrators this week
ignored the curfew Morsy imposed on the region following bloodshed on
the second anniversary of the revolution last Friday. Protesters fed up
with slow change clashed with authorities, leaving seven people dead.
Rage exploded again when
a judge sentenced to death 21 residents of Port Said for their roles in
a deadly soccer riot last year. At least 38 people were killed in the
two days of violence after the verdict.
The defense minister
denied reports that the army used live ammunition on the protesters,
state-run media said.
"What struck me this
time was the call for emergency law and emergency measures, and it was
just ignored," Cook said. "The people in Port Said were demonstrating
and just thumbed their nose at the government."
Protesters behind the
Egyptian revolution now feel betrayed, particularly as the state
security agency was changed in name only to homeland security, Stacher
said. No one from Mubarak's coercive security apparatus was sentenced
for any violence during the revolutionary rallies, he said.
Protesters now just
throw rocks at police during most encounters, he added.
"This all boils down to
something very basic," Stacher said. "The people demanded real change in
Egypt but were lied to and their wishes were postponed and they were
told they weren't important.
"And the generals went
around and created this exclusivist coalition (with Morsy's government),
which is what people were protesting against in the first place,"
Stacher said.
In fact, protesters
began calling Morsy "Morsilini," a reference to the late Italian fascist
dictator Benito Mussolini who was Adolf Hitler's ally. That nickname
arose after Morsy gave himself sweeping powers in November.
Morsy later canceled
most of those powers following demonstrations. That turn of events hurt
Morsy's image because he was enjoying international attention for
playing a constructive role in the recent, bloody conflict in Gaza
between Hamas and Israeli forces, analysts said.
The stakes are high for a
country strategically positioned in Middle Eastern politics and in
world trade through the Suez Canal.
"I don't think the
international community can afford for (Egypt) to collapse economically
... or politically," Cook said.
The defense minister's
warning is "very important" because "it shows the military has been in
consultation about this. That's why I take it more seriously," Cook
added.
In the coming month,
Egyptians will go to the polls to elect a lower house in Parliament. The
election will be a bellwether on how Morsy's Muslim Brotherhood now
stands against the opposition coalition National Salvation Front,
analysts said.
"They are smart people,"
Stacher said of opposition leaders, "but the problem is that they don't
seem like they want to have a real democracy either."
For now, the Egyptian
military doesn't appear to want to intervene and run the Egyptian
government again as another president is selected.
"If the situation
deteriorates further, the military might not have a choice and it might
find a warm reception," Cook wrote on his blog for the Council on
Foreign Relations.
In a revolution, the
first government typically doesn't stay in power, as seen in the Russian
and French revolutions, Coyle explained.
"Usually it gets
replaced by more radical elements of society," he said.
ليست هناك تعليقات:
إرسال تعليق